Eco-cities: who can afford them?

via: eco-mobility.tv 

A Tour of Europe’s Eco-cities

'Are you torn between living green and living in the heart of the city? Now you can do both! Take a tour of Europe's eco-cities, starting with Stockholm's trendy neighborhood of Hammerby Sjostad, along with London and its BedZed, and finish with IssyGrid, the first French smart grid project. Ready for the ride?'

It is known that cities are a major source of CO2 emissions, much of it directly or indirectly involved with the built environment. This fact has been contributing for a definite shift in the mindset of those living and building the cities. The increasingly higher numbers of environmentally conscious housing developments, such as the ones shown on the video are proof of that.

However, something is often not mentioned but can be easily picked up from these sorts of videos/articles/interviews. The fact is that, in order to be able to live in these ‘eco-cities’ (or eco/green/bio/sustainable cities...)  one usually has to pay a considerable high price.

The truth is that it has become fashionable to live in a place like Bed Zed. Those who are not lucky enough to own a house there can get a glimpse of the place through guided tours! According to the bioregional website ‘thousands of people visit BedZED every year’ (Opening hours are from 9.30am to 5.00pm, Monday to Friday, except bank holidays), and I am sure the same happens in other places such as this.

Apparently, and according to THIS article, 'Research has shown that buyers are willing to pay up to a 20% premium for innovative design and green features such as those at BedZED'.Why? Well, maybe because 'the average BedZED resident still presently releases a massive 56% less carbon dioxide than the average English citizen' the same article states...

Of course, overall, these housing developments certainly have many positive outcomes, but I cannot help wondering just how this fact fits in the sustainability agenda. Sustainable cities, YES, but for whom?

UrbaVerde 2011 - Fair of Sustainable Cities

via: Jornal Arquitecturas

Event:  UrbaVerde 2011 - Fair of Sustainable Cities

Date: 23 to 25 February 2011

Location: Centro de Congressos do Estoril, Portugal

Over its three days, the 7th UrbaVerde intends to be a place of exhibition and presentation of products, services as well as technologies from companies that operate in cities, with particular focus on those contributing to the development of more sustainable cities.

Also integrated in the 7th UrbaVerde - Fair Sustainable Cities, there will be a cycle of workshops specially designed to meet the training needs and information for decision makers, professionals and entrepreneurs in the market of the cities that yearn to make cities more sustainable.
The Cycle of Workshops runs in parallel with other activities of the event 7th UrbaVerde and approaches a set of themes, methods and tools for the design and construction of more sustainable cities, including bioclimatic architecture, sustainable construction, eco-urbanism, energy efficiency, systems reuse of resources and urban mobility.

Programme:

► 23rd February | Design green spaces in a time of crisis 

► 24th February | Management of public space

► 25th February | Eco-urbanism and eco-architecture 

__________________________

Data: 23 a 25 Fevereiro 2011

Centro de Congressos do Estoril

Ao longo dos seus três dias, a 7ª UrbaVerde constituirá um lugar de exposição e apresentação dos produtos, serviços e tecnologias das empresas que operam no mercado das cidades e, com especial enfoque, aquelas que contribuem para o desenvolvimento de cidades mais sustentáveis.

O conjunto de iniciativas da 7ª UrbaVerde - Feira das Cidades Sustentáveis irá abordar as temáticas, questões práticas e soluções que vão de encontro ao quotidiano dos profissionais, decisores e técnicos de todo o sector das cidades.

Integrado nas iniciativas da 7ª UrbaVerde - Feira das Cidades Sustentáveis, o Ciclo de Workshops foi especialmente concebido para ir ao encontro das necessidades de formação e informação dos decisores, profissionais e empresários do mercado das cidades que anseiam tornar as cidades mais sustentáveis.

Este Ciclo de Workshops funciona paralelamente às restantes actividades do evento 7ª UrbaVerde e reúne um conjunto de temáticas, métodos e ferramentas essenciais para a projecção e construção de cidades mais sustentáveis, designadamente arquitectura bioclimática, construção sustentável, eco-urbanismo, eficiência energética, sistemas de reaproveitamento de recursos e mobilidade urbana.

►Dia 23 de Fevereiro | Projectar espaços verdes em tempo de crise

►Dia 24 de Fevereiro | Gestão do espaço público

►Dia 25 de Fevereiro | Eco-urbanismo e eco-arquitectura  

Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

This Monday the 29th will mark the 16th edition of the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP) and the 6th Conference of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP). Kicking off in Cancun, Mexico, COP16 and CMP6 will provide a place for global minds to meet and address all things environmental. The meeting, which will run until December 10th, calls representatives from across the globe to discuss and assess progress in dealing with climate change, as well as the future commitments for industrialized countries under the Kyoto Protocol. This year one of our writers, Moe Beitiks, will be heading south of the border and reporting on all the most pertinent developments and discussions at COP16, so keep your ears and eyes open as this global conference unfolds.

via: Inhabitat

WORKSHOP: SUSTAINABLE CONSTRUCTION LIVING LAB

WORKSHOP: SUSTAINABLE CONSTRUCTION LIVING LAB

17 de Novembro de 2010, entre as 14:00 e as 17:30 horas         

Entrada Gratuita - Inscrição obrigatória: mail@construcaosustentavel.pt   Tel: 918 613 023

AUDITÓRIO DO METROPOLITANO DE LISBOA NA ESTAÇÃO DO ALTO DOS MOINHOS

O SUSTAINABLE CONSTRUÇÃO LIVING LAB, rede que reúne, de forma transversal, os actores relevantes do sector da construção que irão contribuir para tomar prática comum a construção sustentável, tem o principal enfoque na reabilitação do meio edificado.
Neste Workshop serão apresentados a Rede Europeia de Living Labs e outros três Living Labs nacionais, bem como os objectivos e os primeiros resultados dos grupos de trabalho do SUSTAINABLE CONSTRUCTION Living Lab.

O Workshop é dirigido a todos decisores que influenciam a qualidade de construção do meio edificado.

PROGRAMA: 14.00 Recepção dos Participantes
14:30 Boas vindas e Enquadramento	Francisco Cardoso Reis - Metropolitano de Lisboa* José Vale - IAPMEI Jorge Morgado - DECO* Carlos Moreira da Silva - COTEC Livia Tirone - ICS
14:40 Inovação Tecnológia como Catalizador do Desenvolvimento	Carlos Moreira da Silva - COTEC Portugal
15:00 A Rede Europeia de Living Labs	Livia Tirone - ICS
15:20 O Lighting Living Lab em Agueda	Estima de Oliveira - Lighting Living Lab
15:40 O Small Rural Living Lab	Luís Matias - SRLL
16:00 Intelegent Sensing and Smart Services Living Lab	José Luis Malaquias - ISaLL
16:20 O Sustainable Construction Living Lab - APCSL	Helena Farrall  - SCLL
16:40 Inovação em Soluções Construtivas - Resultados de um Grupo de Trabalho da APCSL	Jorge Barros - CS Coelho da Silva
17:10 Diálogo Moderado	Helena Farrall  - SCLL
17:30 Encerramento	Francisco Cardoso Reis - Metropolitano de Lisboa* José Vale - IAPMEI Jorge Morgado - DECO* Carlos Moreira da Silva - COTEC Portugal Livia Tirone - ICS
O SUSTAINABLE CONSTRUCTION LIVING LAB, membro oficial da Rede Europeia de Living Labs (ENoLL) desde Abril de 2010, é uma Associação Privada sem fins lucrativos: APCSL – Living Lab Associação para a Construção Sustentável.

Sustainable City / Developing World

46th ISOCARP Congress, Nairobi, Kenya Sustainable City / Developing World
19-23 September 2010

A sustainable outcome of the world’s urbanisation process is largely dependent on what happens in cities in the developing world. Developing countries will triple their entire built-up urban area by 2030, at astounding speeds and with significant resource constraints. According to the World Bank, developing countries’ newly constructed urban areas in the next thirty years will be equal to the world’s total built area as of 2000.

Under the theme of Sustainable City / Developing World, the 2010 ISOCARP Congress will focus on the agenda of sustainable urbanisation where the largest urban transformation process will take place. ISOCARP believes that its uniquely multi-faceted and multi-cultural constituency, which brings together planners in theory, policy and practice from 81 countries, is the right setting to articulate an active dialogue towards harnessing the benefits and mitigating the negative impacts of urbanisation.

ISOCARP’s 46th Congress will be first ever to be held in Sub-Saharan Africa. The host city will be Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, a metropolis of pan-African stature and emerging global significance. The Government of Kenya, through the Ministries of Local Government, Lands, Housing and Nairobi Metropolitan Development, and the city government of Nairobi, have expressed their endorsement and support of the event.

An open, plenary session will be held at UN-Habitat’s Gigiri campus in Nairobi, indicating the emerging partnership with the foremost UN agency dealing with urban matters. In addition, the congress will reflect the need for a multi-stakeholder response to this pressing agenda through the participation of other international organisations, sister societies, and the private sector.

Via: ISOCARP 

Masters' course - Sustainable construction and rehabilitation, Portugal

Information: http://www.civil.uminho.pt/mcrs.htm
Deadline for applications - 7/9/2010: http://alunos.uminho.pt/candidaturasPG

Publications on Sustainable Built Environment

For those following the subject of Sustainable Construction, particularly in developing countries, here is a list of interesting publications. They are all available online.

Sustainable Climate Adaptation: The Critical Link between Sustainable Development & Climate Change in the Built Environment
2010, C J Walsh

Slums of the World: The Face of Urban Poverty in the New Millennium ?
2003, UN-HABITAT Working Paper 

Agenda 21 for Sustainable Construction in Developing Countries
2002, CIB & UNEP-IETC
Discussion Document 

Agenda 21 for Sustainable Construction in Developing Countries
Position papers - Africa, Latin America & Asia


Agenda 21 on Sustainable Construction
Click Here to Download PDF File directly from CIB WebSite
July 1999, CIB Publication 237

Pegada de carbono de lavar a loiça | Carbon footprint of doing the dishes

Hoje li um artigo no guardian.co.uk/environment e não resisti em partilhá-lo aqui, alterando assim um pouco o tema habitual deste espaço. 

Ora, ao que parece as emissões de CO2 decorrentes da lavagem da loiça à mão podem ser mais elevadas que as produzidas caso se utilize uma máquina de lavar loiça. Gostaria de enfatizar o "podem ser" pois existem na verdade uma série de variáveis que podem ou não apoiar esta teoria. Deixo o artigo completo em baixo.

guardian.co.uk
Green Living Blog, 19 de Agosto 2010

"The carbon footprint of doing the dishes:
Almost zero CO2e: by hand in cold water (but the plates aren't clean)
540g CO2e: by hand, using water sparingly and not too hot
770g CO2e: in a dishwasher at 55°C
990g CO2e: in a dishwasher at 65°C
8000g CO2e: by hand, with extravagant use of water"

"As the numbers above show, the most careful hot-water handwashing just about beats a fully loaded dishwasher. This is partly because most people (in the UK at least) do their manual washing up using hot water heated by a gas-fired boiler, whereas dishwashers heat water from cold using electricity. A modern boiler can capture more than 90% of the energy in the gas, whereas most of the energy in the fuel used to generate electricity is wasted in generation and transmission, which gives hand-washing an obvious head start.

However, according to plenty of anecdotal evidence and at least one study, few people are really careful with hot water when washing up. If instead you leave the hot tap running – as many people do – then the footprint is far higher than using a dishwasher. And even if you do wash up carefully by hand, compared to the dishwasher you still lose out both on hygiene (with nearly 400 times more bacteria left on the dishes after washing) and time (taking nearly four times as long as loading the dishwasher).

Overall, then, it's probably fair to say that the dishwasher wins – assuming that you use appropriate cycles and only run the machine when it's full. This is true even if you include (as the figures above do) the energy used in the production of the dishwasher in the first place. The footprint of an appliance's manufacture is impossible to pin down accurately, but a reasonable estimate would be 130g of CO2e per cycle for a fairly expensive 'built-to-last' model that you keep for 10 years.

As for water consumption and detergent, these aren't included in the numbers given above because they're negligible compared with the impact of heating the water in the first place.

The conclusion, then, is get a dishwasher if you want one. Or, if you have one already, don't feel guilty about using it. To maximise the benefits, always choose a model that will last and then look after it. Try to run it fully loaded, use the economy setting when possible and – for maximum green points – use the timer setting to run the dishwasher in the middle of the night. This way, you'll be using the grid at a time of low demand, which means the least efficient and dirtiest power stations won't be running and, as a result, each unit of power will have a slightly lower carbon footprint."

Humanidade passa a "viver a crédito" a partir de sexta - Ciência - DN

Mais informação AQUI (GLOBAL  FOOTPRINT NETWORK)

Humanidade passa a "viver a crédito" a partir de sexta - Ciência - DN

por Lusa, 16 de Agosto de 2010

"Os habitantes da terra esgotarão a 21 de Agosto os recursos naturais que o planeta lhes proporciona anualmente, pelo que a partir daquela data já passarão a consumir e a viver dos créditos respeitantes ao próximo ano.

O alerta foi deixado hoje pela organização não-governamental Global Footprint Network (GFN), que anualmente calcula o dia em que o consumo da humanidade esgota os recursos naturais que o planeta é capaz de fornecer cada ano.
O limite em 2010 ou "Dia do Excesso" ("Earth Overshoot Day", em inglês) será atingido no sábado 21 de Agosto, refere a organização que trabalha para promover a sustentabilidade através do uso do conceito de Pegada Ecológica, uma ferramenta de contabilidade dos recursos naturais.
"Isso significa que demoramos menos de nove meses para esgotar o nosso orçamento ecológico para este ano", salientou o presidente da Global Footprint Network, Mathis Wackernagel.
Em 2009, o limite dos recursos naturais foi alcançado em 25 de Setembro, mas, segundo o responsável do GFN, o desempenho deste ano não significa que o consumo em 2010 tenha aumentado.
"Este ano analisamos todos os nossos dados e percebemos que, até agora, tínhamos sobreavaliado a produtividade das florestas e das pastagens: em outras palavras, exageramos a capacidade que a Terra" tem para regenerar e absorver o nosso excesso.
A Global Footprint Network também calculou os serviços e recursos que são fornecidos pela natureza e comparou-os ao consumo do seres humanos e as emissões poluentes que estes emitem.
"Na década de 1980, a nossa Pegada Ecológica era mais ou menos equivalente à dimensão da terra. Actualmente é 50% superior", alertou.
"Se você gastar o seu orçamento anual em nove meses provavelmente ficaria muito preocupado com a situação: a situação não é menos grave quando falamos das nossas reservas naturais", sustentou Mathis Wackernagel.
De acordo com o responsável da GFN, as alterações climáticas, a perda de biodiversidade, a desflorestação, a escassez de água e de alimentos "são todos sinais de que não podemos continuar a consumir [este tipo de recursos] à crédito".
Apesar de "dados preliminares" mostrarem que a crise económica e financeira mundial -- que se intensificou em 2008 -- teve um "impacto significativo no consumo", esses dados ainda não são claros, adiantou o responsável.
A título de exemplo, Wackernagel referiu o "consumo de energia que tem vindo a diminuir na Europa e nos EUA, mas não na China".
Para inverter esta tendência, sustenta, é preciso que "a população mundial comece a declinar", uma necessidade que já está a ser percebida entre os demógrafos e ambientalistas, também no seio das Nações Unidas.
"As pessoas pensam que isso seria terrível para a humanidade, que [o aumento da população] é de facto uma vantagem económica. Mas é uma escolha", afirmou Mathis Wackernagel."

Livro - A Sustentabilidade dos Materiais de Construção

"Com autoria de Fernando Pacheco Torgal e Said Jalali foi recentemente concluído o livro A Sustentabilidade dos Materiais de Construção. Esta obra assenta numa extensa revisão da literatura científica e técnica nas diferentes vertentes da sustentabilidade dos materiais de construção e insere-se na prossecução das metas fixadas pela União Europeia no sentido da redução do consumo de energia e de diminuição de resíduos para o parque edificado.

Aborda, entre outros temas, o desenvolvimento e a construção sustentável, a toxicidade dos materiais de construção, os materiais que contribuem para a redução do consumo e energia incorporada nos mesmos, os resíduos de construção e demolição (RCD) e os agregados, ligantes e betões.
Possui um total aproximado de 850 referências bibliográficas, sendo patrocinada pelo Instituto da Habitação e da Reabilitação Urbana (IHRU), Instituto da Construção e do Imobiliário (INCI), Empresa de Desenvolvimento Mineiro SA, STAP Reparação Consolidação e Modificação de Estruturas SA, Associação Nacional dos Industriais da Pré-fabricação em betão (ANIPB), Associação Portuguesa das Empresas de Betão Pronto (APEB), VIROC Portugal – Industrias de Madeira e Cimento SA e Lafarge Betões SA."

Fonte: Engenhariacivil.com

International Conference on Sustainability of Constructions

Acabadinho de chegar por email:

1st Announcement and Call for Papers
International Conference on Sustainability of Constructions
Towards a better built environment

Dear Colleague,
Encouraged by the success of our COST Action C25 “Sustainability of Constructions - Integrated Approach to Life-time Structural Engineering” and its excellent outcome, we are pleased to inform you that next year, on 3-4-5 February 2011, we will organize the International Conference “Sustainability of Constructions - Towards a better built environment” in Innsbruck, Austria.

The Conference will gather a large number of researchers, academics, and professionals from a broad range of subjects dealing with sustainable construction, such as:

• Eco-efficient materials and technologies
• Innovative construction systems
• Sustainability Assessment of Constructions
• Adaptation to Climate Change
• Design for Life Cycle and Reuse
• Design and Technologies for Energy Efficiency
• Life-time structural engineering
• Maintenance and Monitoring
• Renovation and Retrofitting
• Construction Waste Management

In a few days the Secretariat will send out more detailed information about the conference, conference website, deadlines for abstract and paper submissions, registration, place of the conference and recommended Hotels. In the meantime, we would like to inform you about the important dates:

• Abstract submission: by 30 September 2010
• Acceptance of Abstracts: 15 October 2010
• Submission of Full Papers for Review: 15 November 2010
• Acceptance of Papers: 6 December 2010
• Submission of Revised Papers: 18 December 2011
• Conference dates: 03-05 February 2011

Expecting your good receptiveness and interest in this conference dedicated to the “Sustainability of Constructions - towards a better built environment” we would appreciate that you reserve the dates of 3-4-5 February 2011 in your diary to participate in the conference.

Conferência: Eficiência Energética em Edifícios

Organização:

Objectivo: O pacote legislativo constituído pelo Sistema Nacional de Certificação Energética e da Qualidade do Ar Interior nos Edifícios (SCE), pelo Regulamento dos Sistemas Energéticos e de Climatização dos Edifícios (RSECE) e pelo Regulamento das Características de Comportamento Térmico dos Edifícios (RCCTE) transpõe para a ordem jurídica portuguesa as orientações comunitárias, definindo assim o quadro legal para a promoção da Eficiência Energética de Edifícios. Nos últimos anos, têm-se assistido a um grande crescimento deste mercado, sendo também um dos principais objectivos de curto prazo da Estratégia Nacional para a Energia.

 

Esta Conferência, que decorre no âmbito da RENEXPO PORTUGAL, tem como objectivo apresentar um enquadramento legal nacional na área da Eficiência Energética de Edifícios, o papel das entidades envolvidas, bem como soluções técnicas a aplicar. 

Data e Horário: 13 de Maio de 2010, das 9h00 às 13h00

Local: Centro de Congressos de Lisboa (Alcântara)

PROGRAMA DA CONFERÊNCIA 

Importante: Inscrições obrigatórias (site da RENEXPO)

Valor da inscrição:

- Normal – 50,00 Euros

- Associados da Lisboa E-Nova e Agências de Energia  – 25,00 Euros

- Estudantes - 15, 00 Euros

Ecovillage Conference Tokyo 2010

Informação chegada por email:

"The Global Ecovillage Network Oceania & Asia (GENOA) is pleased to announce the forthcoming TOKYO INTERNATIONAL ECOVILLAGE conference.

Following are the details:

International Conference for Sustainable Future - Ecovillage Conference TOKYO 2010

Lectures/Discussions/Workshops/Exhibition/Café… More than 40 programs in three days!

The concept of “ecovillage” is not only for rural side, but also very applicable to the urban area. It contains lots of suggestions and epochal ideas to develop sustainable future.

More than 50 presenters from 30 organizations will flock to the conference, such as board of directors of global ecovillage network (GEN), key-persons of Asian eco-community movement, and MANY Japanese practitioners who has have ecovillage projects all over Japan!
Just come to get inspiration, to make friends, and to network with cool people!

Title : Ecovillage Conference Tokyo 2010

Time : 28-30th May 2010
Place : Josai International Univ., Tokyo Kioicho Campus, Chiyodaku, Tokyo, Japan

Theme : Relocalization for the sustainable earth: Reconstruction of the urban and Ecovillage solution for the rural areas

Guests : Elizabeth McDermott, Tomiaki Tamura, Bindu Mohanty, Penelope Reyes, Li Jingsheng, David Holmgren on SKYPE, Koji Itonaga, Ben Nakamura, Hidetoshi Ohno etc.

Advance Tickets : One Day Ticket 5000 Yen, 3 Days Ticket 12000 Yen
Tickets at the door : One Day Ticket 6000 Yen, 3 Days Ticket 14000 Yen

Info : http://ecovi.begoodcafe.com/en
Inquiry : ecovillage@begoodcafe.com or Tel:+81-3-3411-8879
Organizer : NPO BeGood Cafe"

“Rehabilitation and Sustainability. The Future is Possible”

International congress “Rehabilitation and Sustainability. The Future is Possible” | 4-6 October 2010, Barcelona

 

Event website - http://www.rsf2010.org/en

The congress “Rehabilitation and Sustainability. The Future is Possible” takes its place in the debate about the future from the viewpoint of the construction sector, a sector that has to prepare itself for a new, more solid, coherent, structured model—in short, a model more like that of developed countries, where rehabilitation and sustainability are vital pillars.

The foremost objective is to help change the unthinking dynamic of recent decades in the construction sector. This change is only possible if we follow the European model, with the promotion and consolidation of rehabilitation and sustainability that befit an advanced, evolved, modern society. Identifying the most suitable itineraries and tools for achieving this is the operative objective of the congress, calling for a new and decisive position for rehabilitation in housing policies, at the service of society’s present-day needs.

THEMATIC HEADINGS

Rehabilitation in the new housing policy

Rehabilitation activity is linked to public policies, which have relegated it to a marginal position in the construction sector. By analysing the legal, economic and management framework, and gaining familiarity with the characteristics of the housing stock and evaluating its condition, we can come up with new forms of intervention and urban management that make sustainable rehabilitation a driving force behind a change of model in housing policy and urban development—a model that makes decent housing a priority and protects it from market speculation.

The commitment to sustainability in rehabilitation

Buildings have a far-reaching environmental impact, and today’s major environmental challenges call for improvement in the behaviour of the existing stock. In terms of the city and buildings, sustainable rehabilitation is the answer to the environmental challenge, as well as to economic and social aspects. Integrated urban rehabilitation is the way forward to sustainability.

A regulatory framework for existing buildings

One of the key aspects of rehabilitation is to strike a balance between use of existing buildings and bringing them up to date with new services. To respond to this demand, a specific legal framework is needed for existing buildings, with demand parameters in keeping with their reality and potential. The objective is to lay the bases for this legal framework.  

Climate Change: Reference Guide - Worldwatch institute

Fonte das imagens

Depois de ter deixado informação sobre o relatório que dá conta do estado do mundo em termos populacionais, aproveito para deixar também o acesso para um curto documento produzido pelo WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE, o Climate Change Reference Guide e que explica em poucas páginas alguns dos problemas que o mundo enfrenta graças às alterações climáticas. Esta é uma revisão da informação que tinha sido já publicada pelo mesmo instituto no documento State of the World 2009.

Para consultar o documento completo clique AQUI

População Mundial - Relatório de 2006 (United Nations)

Para os que gostam de saber os números da população mundial, aqui ficam alguns excertos do relatório de 2006 das Nações Unidas (texto completo disponível AQUI).

"...the world population will likely increase by 2.5 billion over the next 43 years, passing from the current 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050. This increase is equivalent to the size that the world population had in 1950 and it will be absorbed mostly by the less developed regions, whose population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050. In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 billion and would have declined were it not for the projected net migration from developing to developed countries, which is expected to average 2.3 million persons a year after 2010."

"Underlying these varied patterns of growth and changes in the age structure are distinct trends in fertility and mortality. Below-replacement fertility prevails in the more developed regions and is expected to continue to 2050. Fertility is still high in most of the least developed countries and, although it is expected to decline, it will remain higher than in the rest of the world. In the rest of the developing countries, fertility has declined markedly since the late 1960s and is expected to reach below-replacement levels by 2050 in the majority of them."

"Future population growth is highly dependent on the path that future fertility takes.In the medium variant, fertility of the world declines from 2.55 children per woman today to slightly over 2 children per woman in 2050. If fertility were to remain about half a child above the levels projected in the medium variant, world population would reach 10.8 billion by 2050. A fertility path half a child below the medium variant would lead to a population of 7.8 billion by mid-century. That is, at the world level, continued population growth until 2050 is inevitable even if the decline in fertility accelerates."

Fonte: World Population Prospects The 2006 Revision: Executive Summary - United Nations (2007)